* Faltering LNG demand, growing tanker fleet drag on freight
rates
* Seen prompting mergers, joint ventures, asset sales
* But rates likely to pick up in 2017 as new LNG projects
start
By Keith Wallis
SINGAPORE, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Shippers who ply the seas to
deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) in massive tankers are
likely to face a wave of consolidation and asset sales, with
freight rates plunging as a growing fleet clashes with tepid
demand.
Companies that manage to weather the shakeout in one of the
key sectors in the global shipping industry should be in a prime
position, however, to benefit from a string of new LNG projects
expected to start trickling online by the end of next year.
"I see more mergers and acquisitions, more consolidation and
a lot more joint ventures as things get tougher," said Andrew
Bridson, business development manager at maritime consultancy
BMT Asia Pacific.
"That is not a bad thing. Consolidation will force out
failing companies and cull a lot of the older tonnage."
LNG transportation was once considered a bright spot in a
global shipping industry that has been in its worst downturn in
30 years. But freight rates have halved since 2014 as appetite
for LNG wavers in the face of stuttering economies in key
markets such as China and South Korea, while the global tanker
fleet is expected to grow nearly 10 percent a year from 2015 to
2017 as ships ordered earlier are completed. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13J225
Spot charter rates for a 160,000 cubic metre LNG carrier are
currently around $32,000 per day, down from $72,000 in 2014 and
over $100,000 in 2013, according to data from British shipping
services firm Clarkson CKN.L .
LNG tankers need to earn $60,000-$80,000 a day to cover
capital and operating costs, shipping experts said.
To make it through the downturn, analysts and industry
officials predict that some shippers will merge, while others
will look to offload assets or club together in operating
ventures.
A handful of smaller operators including Excelerate Energy,
owned by U.S. oil magnate George Kaiser, and Norway's Awilco
ALNG.OL have already received takeover offers or are selling
older vessels. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13R4DV
Flex LNG FLNG.OL , with just two LNG carriers, said it was
looking for other consolidation opportunities after its $2.3
million merger with shipper Exmar EXMR.BR was scuppered in
September.
Meanwhile, Golar LNG GLNG.O , Dynagas DLNG.N and GasLog
Ltd GLOG.N launched the Cool Pool vessel marketing venture
with 14 gas carriers in October to reduce operating costs and
support spot charter rates. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N10T1OM
"I expect to see another LNG ship owners pool emerge," said
an LNG ship broker, declining to be identified as he was not
authorised to speak with media.
Elsewhere, the $70 billion acquisition of BG Group BG.L by
Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDSa.L will create a 70-strong LNG
shipping fleet, one of the biggest in the world, rivaling
Japan's Nippon Yusen Kaisha 9101.T and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
9104.T .
AFTER THE STORM
Those shippers left as part of a leaner industry will be set
to capitalise down the line as new or delayed gas export
projects in Australia, North America and Africa start operating.
These include the Queensland Curtis LNG plant in Australia
and Cheniere Energy's LNG.A Sabine Pass export facility in the
United States, which will receive its first tanker for loading
on Jan. 12. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N13K1T6 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N1342ZQ
"That is going to bring out more LNG onto the market and
that is going to need more ships," said Peter Evensen, chief
executive at shipper Teekay GP TGP.N .
Indeed, the longer term picture looks brighter, with
analysts forecasting demand for LNG will grow to 410 million
tonnes by 2025 from 249 million tonnes this year as the global
economy starts to pick up.
The outlook for the fuel was also boosted by a historic
climate change agreement signed by world leaders in Paris this
month, helping pave the way for a major shift away from coal
towards cleaner fuels such as gas. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N1410F
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GRAPHIC on falling LNG tanker rates http://reut.rs/1QLrx2N
TAKE A LOOK-Global LNG markets enter era of glut urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N13T20Q
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(Reporting by Keith Wallis in Singapore; Editing by Henning
Gloystein and Joseph Radford)
((keith.wallis@thomsonreuters.com)(+65 6870 3803)(Reuters
Messaging:keith.wallis.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: LNG FREIGHT/RATES